Can someone finally explain the monty hall problem in a way that makes intuitive sense
Ive read like 10 explanations and I STILL dont get why you should switch.
The setup: 3 doors, 1 car, 2 goats. You pick a door. Monty (who knows where the car is) opens a different door revealing a goat. Now you can switch to the remaining door.
Everyone says switching gives chance to win vs staying gives .
But heres why I think its 50/50: After Monty opens a door with a goat, there are 2 doors left. The car is behind 1 of them. So its no matter what you do.
I know I must be wrong because mathematicians and Mythbusters proved it. But my brain refuses to accept it. Can someone give an explanation that finally clicks for someone whos not good at probability?
Does the 100 doors version help? Like if theres 100 doors, you pick 1, Monty opens 98 goats, you switch to the last door. That one makes more sense but I still cant reconcile the 3-door case.
THE 100 DOOR EXPLANATION FINALLY MADE IT CLICK THANK YOU
what if Monty doesnt know where the car is and just randomly opens a door that happens to be a goat?
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2 Answers
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I was in your boat for YEARS. What finally made it click for me:
Imagine theres a million doors. You pick one. Monty opens 999,998 goats. Theres your door and one other door left.
Either:
A) You got lucky and picked the car initially (1 in a million)
B) The car is behind the other door (999,999 in a million)
Are you feeling lucky?
For 3 doors: Either you picked right (1 in 3) or the car is behind the other door (2 in 3).
The "two doors = 50/50" is wrong because your initial pick has already established a probability that Montys action doesnt erase.
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