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Sarah Mitchell
Sarah Mitchell
May 18, 2026

Does always choosing C improve multiple-choice guessing?

My friend told me that on multiple choice tests, you should always guess "C" if you dont know the answer because "C is the most common correct answer."

I said this is nonsense because test makers randomize correct answer positions.

But then I looked at my last 3 exams:

  • Exam 1 (40 questions): C was correct 13 times (32.5%)
  • Exam 2 (50 questions): C was correct 11 times (22%)
  • Exam 3 (30 questions): C was correct 9 times (30%)

So in 2 out of 3 exams, C was the most frequent correct answer!

Is this just random chance? Or do test makers subconsciously put correct answers in the middle?

Mathematically: If answers are uniformly random, the expected proportion for each letter is 25%. The standard deviation is 0.25×0.75n\sqrt{\frac{0.25 \times 0.75}{n}}n0.25×0.75​​.

For a 40-question test: σ≈0.068\sigma \approx 0.068σ≈0.068, so 32.5% is about 1.1 standard deviations above expected. Thats not statistically significant at p<0.05p < 0.05p<0.05.

BUT my friend still insists. Whose right? Is there any bias in real-world test design?

1 answers1.1k views

1 Answer

2
Emily Park
Emily Park
May 18, 2026
Accepted
Your math is correct. The expected count under uniform distribution for each answer choice on an $n$-question test is $n/4$, with standard deviation $\sqrt{n(0.25)(0.75)} = \sqrt{3n}/4$. For $n=40$: $\mu = 10$, $\sigma \approx 2.74$. Your observed 13 is $z \approx 1.1$, $p \approx 0.27$. Not significant. **But theres a psychological bias:** When constructing tests, teachers may unconsciously put correct answers in the middle (option C) because: 1. They tend to avoid A (too obvious) and E (suspicious) 2. The middle feels "balanced" 3. They may want to avoid patterns that test-takers can exploit **The "always guess C" strategy** is actually not optimal for random guessing either. If answers are random, your expected score is $n/4$ regardless. But if test-makers DO have a bias toward C, then guessing C is optimal. **A better strategy:** Look at past exams from the same teacher. If theres a measurable bias, exploit it. If not, pick randomly. **For best results:** Dont guess randomly. Eliminate obviously wrong answers first, then guess from the remaining. With 2 options left, you have 50% chance instead of 25%.
2 comments
Sarah Mitchell
Sarah MitchellMay 18, 2026

fun fact: on the SAT, answer choice C is NOT more common. they use computerized randomization now.

Chen Wei
Chen WeiMay 18, 2026

but on teacher-made tests, theres often a measurable bias toward middle options. source: i analyzed 20 years of my calc exams.

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