Is the probability of correctly guessing a multiple choice exam by random chance higher if you always choose C explain the psychology
My friend told me that on multiple choice tests, you should always guess "C" if you dont know the answer because "C is the most common correct answer."
I said this is nonsense because test makers randomize correct answer positions.
But then I looked at my last 3 exams:
- Exam 1 (40 questions): C was correct 13 times (32.5%)
- Exam 2 (50 questions): C was correct 11 times (22%)
- Exam 3 (30 questions): C was correct 9 times (30%)
So in 2 out of 3 exams, C was the most frequent correct answer!
Is this just random chance? Or do test makers subconsciously put correct answers in the middle?
Mathematically: If answers are uniformly random, the expected proportion for each letter is 25%. The standard deviation is .
For a 40-question test: , so 32.5% is about 1.1 standard deviations above expected. Thats not statistically significant at .
BUT my friend still insists. Whose right? Is there any bias in real-world test design?
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fun fact: on the SAT, answer choice C is NOT more common. they use computerized randomization now.
but on teacher-made tests, theres often a measurable bias toward middle options. source: i analyzed 20 years of my calc exams.
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