MethodMath
Sarah Mitchell
May 18, 2026

Is the probability of correctly guessing a multiple choice exam by random chance higher if you always choose C explain the psychology

My friend told me that on multiple choice tests, you should always guess "C" if you dont know the answer because "C is the most common correct answer."

I said this is nonsense because test makers randomize correct answer positions.

But then I looked at my last 3 exams:

  • Exam 1 (40 questions): C was correct 13 times (32.5%)
  • Exam 2 (50 questions): C was correct 11 times (22%)
  • Exam 3 (30 questions): C was correct 9 times (30%)

So in 2 out of 3 exams, C was the most frequent correct answer!

Is this just random chance? Or do test makers subconsciously put correct answers in the middle?

Mathematically: If answers are uniformly random, the expected proportion for each letter is 25%. The standard deviation is 0.25×0.75n\sqrt{\frac{0.25 \times 0.75}{n}}.

For a 40-question test: σ0.068\sigma \approx 0.068, so 32.5% is about 1.1 standard deviations above expected. Thats not statistically significant at p<0.05p < 0.05.

BUT my friend still insists. Whose right? Is there any bias in real-world test design?

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1 Answer

Dr. Emily Park
Dr. Emily ParkMay 18, 2026 Accepted
Your math is correct. The expected count under uniform distribution for each answer choice on an $n$-question test is $n/4$, with standard deviation $\sqrt{n(0.25)(0.75)} = \sqrt{3n}/4$. For $n=40$: $\mu = 10$, $\sigma \approx 2.74$. Your observed 13 is $z \approx 1.1$, $p \approx 0.27$. Not significant. **But theres a psychological bias:** When constructing tests, teachers may unconsciously put correct answers in the middle (option C) because: 1. They tend to avoid A (too obvious) and E (suspicious) 2. The middle feels "balanced" 3. They may want to avoid patterns that test-takers can exploit **The "always guess C" strategy** is actually not optimal for random guessing either. If answers are random, your expected score is $n/4$ regardless. But if test-makers DO have a bias toward C, then guessing C is optimal. **A better strategy:** Look at past exams from the same teacher. If theres a measurable bias, exploit it. If not, pick randomly. **For best results:** Dont guess randomly. Eliminate obviously wrong answers first, then guess from the remaining. With 2 options left, you have 50% chance instead of 25%.
2 comments
Sarah Mitchell
Sarah MitchellMay 7, 2026

fun fact: on the SAT, answer choice C is NOT more common. they use computerized randomization now.

Prof. Chen Wei
Prof. Chen WeiMay 7, 2026

but on teacher-made tests, theres often a measurable bias toward middle options. source: i analyzed 20 years of my calc exams.

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